BLOG: As The Conspiracies Turn

The conspiracy theories continue to grow surrounding why Bill Belichick traded both Jacoby Brissett and, more importantly, Jimmy Garoppolo.

One of the funnier theories out there from national pundits as well as fans is Belichick wanted to trade Tom Brady, but Bob Kraft stepped in the middle and told Bill "no." The tension between Belichick and Brady's fitness guru, Alex Guerrero, then throw in how well Garoppolo has played in the Bay Area, only fuels the fires.

There is no doubt Garoppolo has been doing well in San Francisco. He is 4-0 and has the 49ers playing the spoiler role for teams with playoff aspirations (i.e. a 44-33 shoot-out win over Jacksonville on Christmas Eve).

It's easy to say right now, that Garoppolo has the potential to be the next great quarterback. In his first six games a starting quarterback in the NFL, the product of Eastern Michigan is a 6-0 and already has two Super Bowl rings (thanks to Tom Brady), but he here's the kicker. Garoppolo has yet to experience any adversity as a starting quarterback.

He has yet to have a game where he stumbles, throws three or four interceptions, and his team loses. It happens to every great quarterback. Peyton Manning has even threw six interceptions - five in the first half - against the San Diego Chargers in 2007.

But what separates the greats from the average is how they respond to that adversity. We've seen this time and time again from Brady (and other Hall of Fame quarterbacks).  Go back to December 2006 when a 29-year-old Tom Brady threw four interceptions and had his lowest quarterback rating in his career (55.1) in a 21-0 loss in Miami. He came back the following week and blew out the Houston Texans, 40-7, throwing for 109 yards with two touches and a quarterback rating of 108.8.

We have not seen this from Garoppolo. He has not had a bad game, yet. Only time will tell, how he responds to a poor performance in his next game. It's unfair, but it's a point that needs to be addressed. It's tough to evaluate a quarterback after only six starts.

After six starts in the NFL, Garoppolo is 6-0  throwing for 1,746 yards and eight touchdowns with a 102.9 quarterback rating. Compare that to Brady's first six starts of his his career in 2001, throwing for 1,273 yards with 10 touchdowns for a 91.4 rating. Garoppolo's playing well now, but it's only six games and unfair to say he's going to be playing at that high-level every game going forward.

Comparison of first six games as a starting NFL quarterback:

Brady

Team	Date	Opponent	Result	PF	PA	Comp.	Att.	Yards	TD	INT	QB Rating
New England Patriots	9/30/01	Indianapolis Colts	WON	44	13	13	23	168	0	0	79.6
New England Patriots	10/7/01	Miami Dolphins	LOSS	10	30	12	24	86	0	0	58.7
New England Patriots	10/14/01	San Diego Chargers	WON	29	26	33	54	364	2	0	93.4
New England Patriots	10/21/01	Indianapolis Colts	WON	38	17	16	20	202	3	0	148.3
New England Patriots	10/28/01	Denver Broncos	LOSS	20	31	25	38	203	2	4	57.1
New England Patriots	11/4/01	Atlanta Falcons	WON	24	10	21	31	250	3	0	124.4
First Six Games As Starting Quarterback			4-2	165	127	120	190	1273	10	4	91.4

Garoppolo

Team	Date	Opponent	Result	PF	PA	Comp.	Attempts	Pass. Yards	TD	INT	QB Rating
New England Patriots	9/11/16	Arizona Cardinals	WON	23	21	24	33	264	1	0	106.1
New England Patriots	9/18/16	Miami Dolphins	WON	31	24	18	26	232	3	0	135.4
San Francisco 49ers	12/3/17	Chicago Bears	WON	15	14	26	37	293	0	1	82.4
San Francisco 49ers	12/10/17	Houston Texans	WON	26	16	20	33	334	1	1	92.2
San Francisco 49ers	12/17/17	Tennessee Titans	WON	25	23	31	43	381	1	0	106.8
San Francisco 49ers	12/24/17	Jacksonville Jacguars	WON	44	33	21	30	242	2	1	102.4
First Six Games As Starting Quarterback			6-0	164	131	140	202	1746	8	3	102.9

Brissett

Team	Date	Opponent	Result	PF	PA	Comp.	Att.	Yards	TD	INT	QB Rating
New England Patriots	9/22/16	Houston Texans	WON	27	0	11	19	103	0	0	72.9
New England Patriots	10/2/16	Buffalo Bills	LOSS	0	16	17	27	205	0	0	86.2
Indianapolis Colts	9/17/17	Arizona Cardinals	LOSS	13	16	20	37	216	0	1	60.2
indianapolis Colts	9/24/17	Cleveland Browns	WON	31	28	17	24	259	1	0	120.0
indianapolis Colts	10/1/17	Seattle Seahawks	LOSS	18	46	16	29	157	1	1	67.7
indianapolis Colts	10/8/17	San Francisco 49ers	WON	26	23	22	34	314	0	1	82.2
First Six Games As Starting Quarterback			3-3	115	129	103	170	1254	2	3	79.9

At this very moment, it may look like a terrible trade for the Patriots and only gets worse with how well Garoppolo plays, but to believe there to be a conspiracy is preposterous. But, as always, the "grassy knoll" theories are always more entertaining to talk about than the actually truth.

Trading Brissett before the season has a simple explanation. At the time, the Pats just lost Julian Edelman to an ACL injury and were unsure on the health of Malcolm Mitchell. They were in need of depth at wide receiver. Brissett was an expandable option to give up to get Phillip Dorsett.

Fast forward a couple of months to the trade of Garoppolo. Garoppolo is going to be a free agent after the season. The Patriots could not afford to keep two quarterbacks on the roster and would not be able to use the franchise tag on him.

The only theory that makes a minuscule amount of sense is, the Patriots had confidence in their defense at the beginning of the season. If something happened to Brady, Garoppolo's experience in the offense and confidence in their defense they could still make a long run in the post-season. But as soon as Belichick noticed the defense wasn't as good as they predicted, he soon realized the only way they would win in the playoffs and another Super Bowl was with Brady.

The Grassy Knoll Theory would be better to believe than any of the ones surrounding Belichick, Brady, Kraft and Garoppolo.